Wednesday, June 15, 2011

2011 Trade Forecast Update: Part 2

Pork Higher; Beef and Broiler Meat Stable

Record global pork production is largely a function of efficiency gains in China, and higher slaughter
weights in the EU, which are expected to more than offset the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) related
drop in South Korea. Expanded world trade is driven by strong demand from South Korea, China,
and the Ukraine.

Broilermeat production is forecast to expand on stronger demand and tight supplies of beef and pork
in most major producing countries. World trade remains virtually unchanged. Russia’s December
announcement of a 38 percent decline in the tariff rate quota (TRQ) volume to 375,000 metric tons
resulted in a significant downward revision to its import forecast. Chinese imports are forecast lower
as reduced U.S. shipments (as a result of market access issues) more than offsets higher shipments
from South America. Brazilian and U.S. exports are revised lower, offsetting larger exports from the
EU and China on strong demand from Asian and African markets.


www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/circular/2011/livestock_poultry.pdf

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