Exports
Strong export growth by India is expected to continue. This expansion, paired with a
significant upward revision in the 2010 forecast, generates a substantially higher 2011
forecast. Comparatively low prices, a beneficial exchange rate, ample supplies and robust
Southeast Asian and Middle East demand are spurring shipments. In addition to
benefiting from increased market access and growing demand in key markets, India is
better able to compete with Brazil due to its price competitiveness. As a result, India is
expected to capture some market share from Brazil, the world’s leading exporter.
Therefore, growth in Brazilian exports is revised significantly downward.
The United States is forecast higher on a competitive dollar, strong Asian demand, and
tight Oceania supplies. Improved Asian market access spurs an increase for Mexico.
The EU is revised upward on ample supplies enabling shipments to Russia and the shortterm
sales to Turkey.
Lower than expected production reduces Argentina, which are forecast less than half of
the volume achieved just two years ago. Despite ample supplies, high prices cause
Uruguay to struggle to expand shipments, generating a downward revision.
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